Long-term holders are quietly transferring supply to a new generation of buyers, but looming Federal Reserve rate hikes could still trigger the capitulation markets have been waiting for.

Bitcoin consolidated after Monday's selloff as Donald Trump threatened more Iran strikes, gold extended its slide and a KOSPI index meltdown sent South Korean crypto volumes soaring.

South Korea announced the upcoming launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF, which will introduce Bitcoin to a $1.93 trillion economy. （The Bitcoin Historian）

According to data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the Small Business Optimism Index in the United States rose 2.1 points to 97.4 in June, approaching the 52 year average of 98.0. The uncertainty index in the survey decreased by 2 points to 89, but still remains above the historical average level of 68. The proportion of business owners who consider inflation as the "most important single issue" has risen to the highest level in nearly two years, and more companies have raised their average selling prices. Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist of NFIB, stated that the current economic environment has brought positive changes to small business owners, accompanied by ongoing challenges. The decrease in fuel costs has brought relief, and businesses expect the operating environment to improve in the next six months.

QCP released its Q3 2026 digital asset outlook, stating that the cryptocurrency market lacks liquidity drivers and BTC is expected to remain volatile in the range of $60000 to $75000. The uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies, high real interest rates, and weak ETF fund flows are suppressing the market. The AI sector continues to attract institutional funds, and BTC is a high beta liquid asset. The demand for enterprise BTC reserves provides long-term support, and the market focuses on financing capabilities. QCP recommends maintaining core BTC positions, controlling leverage, and monitoring ETF fund flows, stablecoin supply, and changes in real interest rates.