Citigroup and Bank of America have differing views on the US July CPI data and the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $853.54 million in net inflows last week, the strongest since mid-April, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking the bulk.

Cathie Wood stated that the US fiscal deficit accounts for 5.6% of GDP, and if productivity and technology adoption accelerate, this proportion may approach 5% by the end of the year. The greater risk in the future is deflation, especially for companies that have not adopted AI and productivity tools. After the United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC in May, production rose to a historic high, and oil prices may fall, driving deflation. Capital expenditure has exceeded the range of the past 30 years, and the market's concern about AI foam has been exaggerated. The performance of Bitcoin relative to gold is stabilizing again, and Bitcoin and stablecoins will become the two main beneficiaries of intelligent agent business transformation.

[Trump: Patiently Addressing the Iran Standoff, Focusing on Hormuz Strait Navigation and Nuclear Deterrence] According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials stated that Trump is patiently addressing the diplomatic standoff with Iran, with a primary focus on ensuring smooth energy transportation through the Hormuz Strait. White House officials said the U.S. has achieved its military objectives against Iran and retains military options should Iran attack vessels. Trump told aides that last year the U.S. military destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, making it impossible for Iran to restart nuclear activities during his tenure. Trump stated that U.S. intelligence agencies are capable of detecting Iran's attempts to rebuild nuclear facilities or develop nuclear weapons, ensuring a lasting deterrent against threats. Officials indicated that if Iran's nuclear program is under control and the strait remains navigable, Trump is inclined to extend the ceasefire. If Iran fully reopens the strait, Trump is expected to lift the military blockade on Iranian ports.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Damon has stated that the United States may lose its global reserve currency status within the next 25 years. （Watcher.Guru）

According to Reuters, economists expect the overall CPI annual rate in the United States to drop to 3.4% in July, and the core CPI annual rate to drop to 2.5%. Citigroup economists believe that the cooling of inflation pressure will rule out the possibility of a rate hike in September. Bank of America analysts say that the rebound in core service sector indicators may keep the September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if inflation data falls below expectations, the Fed's rate hike may be postponed until December or later. AI interpretation: Inflation data has become the core variable that influences the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the divergence in the market on the magnitude of inflation cooling directly reflects a fierce game over the direction of interest rate policy. The resilience of core service industry indicators constitutes the main support for the expectation of interest rate hikes, while the downward trend of overall inflation provides space for policy shifts. The expectation gap between long and short positions exacerbates the volatility risk in the financial market, and investors are responding to the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policies by repricing. The final performance of the current inflation data will directly determine the decision-making tone of the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.