According to the CME Federal Reserve observation data cited by JinShi, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate hike is 58.3%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 30.1%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 53.7%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.1%.