According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% in October is 35.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 64.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% until December is 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 41.6%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 50.9%.
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path reflects extremely high expectations of tightening. The focus of current interest rate decisions has completely shifted towards combating inflation, and policy makers are determined to maintain high interest rates. This pricing logic directly suppresses the valuation space of risk assets. Investors must accept the reality that monetary policy remains high for a longer period of time.
