According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 75.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 24.9%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 20.6%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 61.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 18.1%.
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term by the Federal Reserve is absolutely dominant, reflecting that the current monetary policy has entered an extremely cautious observation period. The high probability of keeping interest rates unchanged directly locks in the short-term policy path, ruling out the urgency of recent interest rate hikes. As time goes by towards the end of the year, the market's expected focus shifts towards interest rate hikes, indicating investors' deep concerns about the risk of inflation rebound. The evolution of this expectation gap has forced the market to reassess the duration of the high interest rate environment and price the subsequent policy tightening more aggressively.
