Joseph Brusueiras: Maintain the forecast of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates in October and raising interest rates in December

Joseph Brusueiras, Chief Economist of RSM in the United States, believes that both recruitment and layoffs in the US job market are at a low level, and the slight increase in unemployment rate is caused by statistical noise. Currently, the US labor market is in a state of full employment. The weak recruitment growth rate and fluctuations in labor force size support the Federal Reserve's October meeting to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, and the risk of wage increases triggering a second round of inflation is minimal. The benchmark judgment for monetary policy is to not raise interest rates in October, raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in March 2027. (Source: Golden Ten Data) AI interpretation: This viewpoint clearly defines that the current labor market is in a state of full employment and excludes the risk of inflation caused by a wage spiral. Analysts have established the policy tone of the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term through the interpretation of recruitment and layoff data. This judgment negates the necessity of recent interest rate cuts and provides logical support for the subsequent path of interest rate hikes. The market needs to recalibrate its expectations for a shift in monetary policy, as a high interest rate environment will continue to constrain economic activity.