Next week, the market will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, the US ISM non manufacturing PMI, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In September, the United States saw an increase of 29000 non farm payroll workers, leading to a cooling of market expectations for the Fed's October rate hike and a shift in focus towards the December rate hike; The meeting minutes will disclose officials' discussions on the magnitude of interest rate hikes, the suspension of interest rate hikes, and their judgments on inflation and employment risks. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its interest rate decision, and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its September meeting. The G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel, coupled with the progress of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the situation in the Middle East, leading to increased volatility in oil prices. The yield of US long-term treasury bond bonds, the repurchase scale of 20-30-year treasury bond bonds and the auction of 10-year and 30-year treasury bond have attracted attention.
AI interpretation: The significantly lower than expected non farm employment data directly reveals signs of a significant cooling in the labor market. This data performance has completely reversed the market's expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes in the short term, forcing policy makers to reassess the tightening path. The weak employment growth directly weakens the momentum of economic expansion, providing sufficient practical basis for the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. The market's focus has shifted from anti inflation to defending against the risk of economic recession, and the logic of asset pricing has undergone a fundamental transformation.
