According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 90.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 9.4%; the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 25.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 6.7%.
AI Interpretation: The market consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term is extremely solid, reflecting that the current monetary policy path has entered a highly certain and stable period. The extremely high probability of maintaining the current interest rate level has directly suppressed speculative volatility related to recent rate hikes. This pricing structure indicates that investors have fully priced in the current tightening cycle and are shifting their focus to marginal adjustments in subsequent policies. This data clarifies the market's firm expectation that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in the short term, effectively stabilizing interest rate volatility expectations in the financial markets.
