New York Fed: U.S. inflation expectations remain stable, unemployment concerns rise to a six-and-a-half-year high

On November 10, the New York Federal Reserve's October consumer expectations survey showed that U.S. consumers' one-year, three-year, and five-year inflation expectations remained at 3.9%, 3.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The average expected probability of an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year has risen to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020; the probability of being unemployed over the next year has risen to 13.9%. The expected probability of finding a job after becoming unemployed has risen to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025. Regarding household finances, the expected probability of being unable to repay the minimum amount of debt in the next three months has risen to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025; household income growth is expected to fall to 3.0%, and consumption expenditure growth is expected to fall to 5.3%.