7 x 24 快訊
更多 >今天 2026-08-21
From my personal perspective, the probability of a rate hike in 2026 is extremely low, almost negligible. The main reason is that the rise in oil prices has already been curbed. If WTI drops to around $60 and Brent drops to around $65, then inflation in the U.S. and even globally will most likely retreat from its peak. Of course, this transmission takes time, probably another two to three months. By the fourth quarter, oil prices should stabilize at relatively low levels—assuming Trump doesn’t stir up any drama. The tariff issue hasn’t even been resolved yet. All in all, I personally believe that even if there’s no rate cut or just one rate cut in 2026, the likelihood of a rate hike in 2026 is very low. Now even Iran’s oil is starting to hit the market.