Wintermute: The cryptocurrency market has entered the late stage of a bear market, but the true bottom may not have arrived yet BlockBeats News: On June 30th, Wintermute released its latest market report stating that Bitcoin has fallen below $60000, Ethereum has weakened synchronously, and the cryptocurrency market has entered the late stage of a bear market, but the true bottom of the cycle may not have yet appeared. According to the report, the recent cooling of AI trading has become the main line of the global market. The NASDAQ fell for five consecutive trading days, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7% in a single day. Funds began to rotate from large technology stocks to small cap stocks and US treasury bond bonds, while crypto assets and technology stocks were under pressure simultaneously. At the same time, PCE inflation in the United States rose to 4.1% in May, strengthening market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates in the long term, and the strengthening of the US dollar further suppressed the performance of risk assets. Wintermute believes that the current market sentiment has entered an extreme panic zone, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining between 18 and 24, and about half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in a floating loss state, all close to the bottom characteristics of historical bear markets. However, the report points out that what is truly lacking at this stage is the influx of funds again. Spot ETFs have recently had a net outflow of about $1.8 billion, and stablecoins and other liquidity indicators have not improved yet. Regarding the latest capital framework of Strategy, Wintermute stated that the company's increase in STRC dividends, initiation of stock buybacks, and first formal authorization to sell up to approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin will help reduce capital structure risk, thus receiving a positive response from the market. But the report suggests that Bitcoin reserve companies are beginning to retain the right to sell BTC to pay dividends, which also means that the market's long-standing "perpetual buying" is gradually shifting towards "conditional buying". Wintermute predicts that due to historical seasonality, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to bottom out in the summer and is more likely to reach a true bottom around September to October. The subsequent trend will still depend on the macro environment, the cooling of the AI sector, and the return of capital flow to the cryptocurrency market. [Original link]