Next Week's Market Preview: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes Incoming, Focus on Rate Hike Path and Gold Trends

BlockBeats News, July 5 — Next week, the global market will see the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes, and several key economic data points. The market will focus on the Fed's latest assessment of inflation and interest rate paths, as well as U.S. services PMI, initial jobless claims, and other data. Gold may remain in a short-term consolidation range. Key highlights include: · **Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes**: Scheduled for release early Thursday morning (Beijing time). The market hopes to glean more details from the first meeting chaired by the new Fed Chair, Waller, to assess whether there is room for further rate hikes by year-end. The interest rate market has largely priced in a 25 basis point hike in December and sees a certain probability of earlier action in October. · **Fed Officials' Speeches**: Officials including Williams, Logan, and Waller will deliver speeches. The market will watch closely to see if they adjust their hawkish stance in light of recent weak nonfarm payroll data. · **European Central Bank Minutes**: Set for release on Thursday. Investors will focus on the ECB's latest evaluations of economic growth, inflation, and subsequent monetary policy. · **Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision**: The market estimates an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike, with attention on whether the RBNZ will follow through on its prior hawkish guidance. · **Key Economic Data**: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI final reading, EIA crude oil inventory, and initial jobless claims data will be released sequentially, providing new clues for assessing the U.S. economy and interest rate outlook. · **Gold Outlook**: HSBC believes that under the backdrop of high real interest rates and a strong dollar, gold may remain in a short-term consolidation range. However, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global de-dollarization trend continue to support the medium- to long-term bullish logic for gold. · **Earnings Season Kickoff**: Companies such as PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Levi's will be among the first to release Q2 earnings. The market will focus on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year guidance, setting the stage for the mid-July bank stock earnings season. [Original Link]