Written before the release of CPI data today Yesterday's correction in the US stock market, in addition to the adjustment in the AI sector, is likely to also include risk aversion towards today's CPI release. In theory, the expected CPI data this time is still acceptable. For example, the broad CPI front value is 4.2%, the market forecast is 3.8%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast is 3.7%. This data indicates that the overall inflation expectation is downward. The more important core inflation pre value is 2.9%, the market forecast is 2.9%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast is 2.8%. From the forecast value, the change in core inflation is not significant. Considering that the actual oil price has already dropped, the probability of core inflation data remaining unchanged is quite high. But the problem is that the United States and Iran are once again at odds, and not only has Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States also needs to impose a 20% tax on the value of goods in the Strait of Hormuz in addition to using force to suppress it. Although many small partners believe that this is Trump's nonsense, the market believes that Brant has risen to $85, and WTI has risen to nearly $80, which has completely disrupted the market's judgment on the oil trend. Although the United States and Iran have always played small games before, the market believes that peace and the openness of Hormuz are still major prerequisites. But this drop in CPI may also turn into loneliness. If we go back to full-scale war or the United States levies taxes on Hormuz, the market may expect inflation to rise again in August.