The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 86.2%

CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 13.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 86.2%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 42.9%. (Source: Federal Reserve) AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path has become highly concentrated, reflecting a strong consensus among investors on the continuation of tightening policies. The high probability of interest rate hikes directly suppresses the market's illusion of a shift in monetary policy, and the funding side will continue to bear the liquidity pressure brought by high interest rates. This pricing structure clarifies the tightening tone of the current financial environment, forcing asset prices to reassess the negative impact of rising financing costs. The determination of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates has become the core logic of market competition, and risk assets will face sustained valuation correction pressure in the short term.