The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 77.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike in December is 67.3%

CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 77.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 22.1%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 17.9%. AI interpretation: The current market pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path has significantly shifted, and expectations of interest rate hikes have regained dominance. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has significantly narrowed, reflecting the extreme vigilance of the market towards the risk of inflation rebound. This pricing logic directly drives up US bond yields and continues to suppress risky assets. The necessity of further tightening policy by the Federal Reserve within the year has become a market consensus, and the high interest rate environment will be maintained for a longer period of time.