Analysis shows that Bitcoin has experienced 10 trading days this year with prices deviating by at least three standard deviations, surpassing the 8 days in 2018. The annualized volatility of Bitcoin has decreased from 84% to 46%, and the average daily 3-sigma volatility has decreased from 10% to 7%. Since 2024, Bitcoin has recorded 26 3-sigma trading days, Nvidia has 8, S&P 500 has 16, and gold has 12. The standard VaR model may underestimate the tail risk of Bitcoin. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that the standard VaR failed to properly assess the complete tail risk, and the industry has shifted towards an expected shortage approach. The head of Paradigm Europe, Middle East, and Africa stated that the market has become more mature due to institutions, ETFs, and deeper liquidity, but the impact of macro, leverage, and positions has not disappeared. (Source: CoinDesk)
